Public bus arrival time prediction based on traffic information management system

This paper presents a statistical approach to predict the public bus arrival time based on traffic information management system. It considers a number of factors affecting bus travel time, such as departure time, work day, current bus location, number of links, number of intersections, passenger demand at each stop and traffic status of the urban network, etc. A linear model is given to describe the bus arrival time. The parameters of the model are trained by the historical bus arrival times. A prototype system is built to verify the practicability and efficiency of the approach. The approach has been proved relatively accurate and efficient by experiments.