Modeling hourly electricity generation from PV and wind plants in Europe

Fluctuating electricity generation from solar photovoltaic and wind power is one of the most important determinants of the performance of electricity systems with rising shares of renewable energy. To analyze effects of high shares of fluctuating renewable electricity generation on a European scale, this paper provides a bottom-up approach for modeling hourly electricity output based on meteorological data and technical specifications for different reference plants. Electricity output for wind power is based on hourly data on wind speed, ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure and calculated considering different turbine power curves and hub heights. Calculation accuracy, notably reproduction of intraday characteristics, was significantly improved by assessing and accounting for atmospheric layering. Calculation of electricity generation from solar photovoltaic plants is based on historical hourly data on solar radiation and ambient temperature. The plant output is calculated considering module technology, mounting, module temperature and load dependent array and inverter efficiency.