Robust modeling of navigation error for UUV mission planning

In this paper we present an analytical model for incorporating navigational error into a search performance prediction algorithm through the construction of a corresponding utility function. The search space is partitioned into a set of cells over which a utility function formulation is developed for each. The navigational displacement error is assumed to be driven by a Mixed Ornstein Uhlenbeck stochastic process. The evaluation method is based upon our previous work on utility functions as perturbative forms on Bayesian recursion models for search effectiveness modeling with non-trivial dependencies. This paper presents the development of the cell-based probability recursions for the spatially correlated navigational error. From these, a sequential formulation for utility update is developed.