Probability Distribution of Blackouts in Complex Power Networks

Complex networks with a specific distribution of loads and specific topology may undergo a global cascade of failures. Researchers are trying to understand the cascade of failures and design strategies of defense to prevent the cascade from propagating through the entire network. Another fundamental question regards the prediction of blackouts for a given complex network. In this letter, it is the first time that a statistical law of blackouts with a thorough interpretation is derived from the mechanism of cascade of failures or blackouts which is introduced and investigated. Based on the proposed statistical law an approach to predict the blackouts for a given network is presented. The statistical law and proposed approach are also illustrated numerically.