Effects of DSS, modeling, and exogenous factors on decision quality and confidence

118 undergraduate business students participated in an experiment which required that they manage production and workforce with the objective of minimizing costs using one of two forms of computer-based DSS. Using a 2×2 design, subjects were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions: the (1) presence or (2) absence of a modeling feature, crossed with a (3) “good” or (4) “bad” decision environment implemented as a decreasing or increasing sales trend. Results indicate that subjects with access to a modeling feature performed better than those without such capability; subjects´ confidence, however, was not correlated with environmental effects or the availability of a modeling feature. We also found a strong correlation between confidence and actual decision quality for all conditions. All these results are in the opposite direction from those of a previously published study using the same task but a different DSS. Finally, we found no evidence of overconfidence, on average, in any of our conditions