A Probabilistic Load Flow with Consideration of Network Topology Uncertainties

Our past research proposed to apply Comulants and Gram-Charlier expansion method to perform probabilistic load flow studies with consideration of generation and load uncertainties. This paper proposed a new method to improve the previous PLF computation method in order to model the network topology uncertainties. This innovative method uses distribution factor concept to model the impact of network uncertainties as a linear function of power injections. Maintaining the linear relationship between line flows and power injections enables applying Cumulants and Gram-Charlier expansion method to compute probabilistic distribution functions of transmission line flows. The proposed method is examined using IEEE 30-bus test system. Numerical comparison with Monte Carlo simulation method is also presented in this paper. Study results indicate that the proposed method has significantly reduced the computational efforts while maintaining a high degree of accuracy.