Prediction of intergraded transportation demand based on development strategy

The traffic and transportation system is in a reciprocity relationship with the society and economic development. The transportation demand increases not exactly according to the history trend in the background of huge changed development strategy, the main carriers of which are three including gross product, government revenue and population. The multiple nonlinear prediction model is established with the three variables and the parameters are demarcated. The tests in the four types of transportation volume of history data show the average relative error is within 10%, thus the model has good accuracy. At last, the transportation demand is predicted in the case of some area where the development strategy is adjusted materially.