Regional load forecasting method based on the S-curve power business expansion

Author

Wei Wei ; Qiang Yin ; Yang Bai ; Hailong Bao ; Chen Fang ; Jianlin Yang

Author_Institution

Key Lab. of Smart Grid of Minist. of Educ., Tianjin Univ., Tianjin, China

fYear

2013

fDate

22-25 Oct. 2013

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

4

Abstract

As the local power load fluctuates more and more frequently, the usual macroscopic method is not suitable for the regional load forecast. The paper presents a load forecasting method mainly for the next 3-5 years, which introduces business expanding information of the large industrial consumers to reflect the local load variation. And the S-shaped growth curve theory is put forward to describe the growth tendency of conversion rate of business expansion. With drawing and comparing the curve, the forecasting result can be modified to have a better accuracy. The effectiveness of the method is verified by the example of a certain urban distribution network.

Keywords

curve fitting; distribution networks; load forecasting; power system economics; S-shaped growth curve theory; business expanding information; conversion rate; growth tendency; large industrial consumers; load forecasting method; local load variation; local power load; macroscopic method; regional load forecast; urban distribution network; Business; Economics; Educational institutions; Equations; Forecasting; Load forecasting; S-curve; business expansion; large industrial consumer; load forcast; total conversion rate;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

TENCON 2013 - 2013 IEEE Region 10 Conference (31194)

Conference_Location

Xi´an

ISSN

2159-3442

Print_ISBN

978-1-4799-2825-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/TENCON.2013.6718969

Filename

6718969