Planning a reliability growth program utilizing historical data

From historical data this paper will note the significant patterns and key parameters that provide the basis for general guidelines that are very useful in establishing a realistic reliability growth testing program. These guidelines also address concerns raised by the 2008 Defense Science Board Task Force addressing reliability. As noted by this Task Force two major risks areas are the initial MTBF and the Growth Potential MTBF. In particular, the Defense Board Task Force report, Ref. 10, found that the “low initial MTBF and low Growth Potential are the most significant reasons that systems are failing to meet their operational suitability requirements.” This paper will address data and experiences on these two key parameters and provide practical information on how they are managed. The information on these two key parameters and additional information on other parameters, such as growth rates, are very useful in reducing the risks and cost of a reliability growth program. In addition to the data, guidelines will be given regarding the use of these parameters to address the concerns of the Defense Science Board Task Force.