The distribution estimation of pre-timed control delay by repeated simulation

In recent years, the road network reliability has been recognized as a key issue in transportation planning and traffic operation. To analyze the reliability of an intersection, we need information of the distribution of control delay. In this paper, the delay distribution models are explored based on the output data of VISSIM micro simulation model which was calibrated by the delay data observed on a pre-timed control intersection. In particular, split and saturation of the intersection are analyzed of their influence on the distribution. Then, its possible applications in travel time reliability are proposed to facilitate further research.