Application of Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the power injectable on electrical grid by wind farms

This paper is part of a research aimed at assessing the impact of wind generation on the transmission grid of Sicily, second among the Italian regions for wind power installed. To assess the maximum degree of wind generation penetrability in full compliance with the safe operation of the system, it seemed necessary to investigate the reports of contemporary winds and their territorial correlations when load assumes the peak or the minimum. Given the nature of the problem, it has been used a method of analysis based on the application of stochastic simulation techniques type Monte Carlo. In the paper, after describing the current state of wind energy generation in Sicily and development scenarios identified in the study, describes in detail the simulation techniques used to characterize on a probabilistic basis the ratio of the total installed wind power in the territory (in different scenarios) and the corresponding power injected into the grid. Finally, the principal results achieved in conditions of maximum and minimum load are reported.