Crystalline-silicon photovoltaics: necessary and sufficient

Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems have always been dominated by crystalline-silicon (c-Si) technology, and recent developments persuasively suggest that c-Si will continue to be the dominant technology well into the next century. Here, the authors explain why c-Si technology is fairing much better than previously expected, and discuss the impact of improvements currently under development. They use a ground-up, engineering-based approach to predict the expected evolution of this type of PV power system, and argue that c-Si PV power will be in a position to compete for the US residential power market starting in about the year 2010. This market alone will provide the opportunity for PV power to supply several percent of the electrical energy used in the United States. Crystalline silicon technology is therefore not just necessary for building a near-term PV power industry; it also offers a low-risk approach to meeting long-term goals for PV energy systems