Measuring energy security

In this paper we introduce a probabilistic time-series model that quantifies the impact of inter-dependent natural, technical and human risk sources on energy supply continuity. Based on a stylized case study of Italian gas and electricity markets we conclude that typical simplifications in time-series models and alternative approaches lead to a bias, which could in some cases influence policy decisions. In cases where there is no clear-cut optimal answer, more detailed approaches, such as the model that is introduced in this paper, could therefore be needed for the estimation of economically efficient security levels.