The grey B-S model of R&D project evaluation

As the traditional NPV method can´t effectively evaluate R&D project, this paper mainly discussed the applicable methods for R&D project evaluation, integrated use of grey system theory and real option approach to evaluate new product R&D project, proposed the description of expected cash flow with interval grey number to be more practical, then weighted assessment intervals of expected cash flow given by experts with similarity degree of interval grey number, and established the grey B-S model of R&D project evaluation based on interval grey number. An example illustrates the validity of the model, which provides a new way for R&D investment decision-making and shows the advantages of real option approach compared with NPV method.