• DocumentCode
    3178839
  • Title

    Fuzzy time series model for Egypt Gold Reserves forecasting based on fuzzy clustering

  • Author

    Abd-Elaal, AshrafK ; Hefny, Hesham A. ; Abd-Elwahab, AshrafH

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Comput. & Inf. Sci., High Inst. of Comput. Sci., Al-Kawser, Egypt
  • fYear
    2011
  • fDate
    Nov. 29 2011-Dec. 1 2011
  • Firstpage
    140
  • Lastpage
    147
  • Abstract
    Fuzzy time series models have been used widely during the last decade. Such models have the ability to deal with historical data that are given in the form of linguistic values that can not be handled using traditional times series models. Fuzzy time series models have been used successfully in various problems such as: university enrolment, stock indices, and temperature prediction. In this paper, a fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy clustering is presented. This model is an enhanced version of original model proposed by the authors in [1], [2]. The newly proposed model has been used to forecast the Egypt Gold Reserves based on official data starting from the first quarter of 2002 up to the first quarter of 2010. The comparison result with other fuzzy time series models as well as the traditional ARIMA model shows that the proposed model provides higher accuracy and efficient performance.
  • Keywords
    autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; fuzzy set theory; macroeconomics; pattern clustering; time series; ARIMA model; Egypt gold reserves forecasting; autoregressive integrated moving average; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy time series model; Computational modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Gold; Pragmatics; Predictive models; Egypt Gold reserves; forecasting; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy time series;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Computer Engineering & Systems (ICCES), 2011 International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Cairo
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4577-0127-6
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ICCES.2011.6141028
  • Filename
    6141028