DocumentCode
3178839
Title
Fuzzy time series model for Egypt Gold Reserves forecasting based on fuzzy clustering
Author
Abd-Elaal, AshrafK ; Hefny, Hesham A. ; Abd-Elwahab, AshrafH
Author_Institution
Dept. of Comput. & Inf. Sci., High Inst. of Comput. Sci., Al-Kawser, Egypt
fYear
2011
fDate
Nov. 29 2011-Dec. 1 2011
Firstpage
140
Lastpage
147
Abstract
Fuzzy time series models have been used widely during the last decade. Such models have the ability to deal with historical data that are given in the form of linguistic values that can not be handled using traditional times series models. Fuzzy time series models have been used successfully in various problems such as: university enrolment, stock indices, and temperature prediction. In this paper, a fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy clustering is presented. This model is an enhanced version of original model proposed by the authors in [1], [2]. The newly proposed model has been used to forecast the Egypt Gold Reserves based on official data starting from the first quarter of 2002 up to the first quarter of 2010. The comparison result with other fuzzy time series models as well as the traditional ARIMA model shows that the proposed model provides higher accuracy and efficient performance.
Keywords
autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; fuzzy set theory; macroeconomics; pattern clustering; time series; ARIMA model; Egypt gold reserves forecasting; autoregressive integrated moving average; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy time series model; Computational modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Gold; Pragmatics; Predictive models; Egypt Gold reserves; forecasting; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy time series;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Computer Engineering & Systems (ICCES), 2011 International Conference on
Conference_Location
Cairo
Print_ISBN
978-1-4577-0127-6
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ICCES.2011.6141028
Filename
6141028
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