Scenario results of a global trends model for use with aerospace systems combat simulations

This paper presents scenarios produced using a model of current global trends. The model addresses a number of significant and serious trends including population growth, resource depletion, and global warming. The scenarios are produced by parametrically varying the factors which control these trends. These factors include global average temperature change, energy resources and reserves, and resource consumption rates. The paper describes recent upgrades to the model and a range of scenarios generated using the model. The purpose of the model is to provide parametric global conflict and population stress scenarios as inputs to studies of specific systems in combat simulation. The study does not attempt to predict the future, but rather to develop a range of scenarios sufficient to generate vignettes for use in evaluating combat system performance across a spectrum of highly stressing possible future conditions.