Modelling HFMD epidemic with periodic infection rate based on data analysis

Author

Xun-Yang Wang ; Wei-jun Ma ; Shuang-hong Ma ; Hai-feng Huo

Author_Institution

Coll. of Electr. & Inf. Eng., Lanzhou Univ. of Technol., Lanzhou, China

fYear

2015

fDate

23-25 May 2015

Firstpage

843

Lastpage

846

Abstract

In this paper, we formulate a kind of SIS-type Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD) model in a short time interval (no more than ten years), in which we sufficiently consider the characteristics of seasonal variation and use periodic infection rate β(t) to describe it. Based on the available data of HFMD in china which is released monthly by Chinese Ministry of Health from 2009 to 2014(see the appendix), we fit out a rather reasonable period infection function between the susceptibles and the infectives. According to our model, we can predict and control the future development of HFMD in china.

Keywords

data analysis; diseases; epidemics; modelling; Chinese Ministry of Health; HFMD epidemic modelling; SIS-type HFMD model; SIS-type hand, foot and mouth disease model; data analysis; infectives; periodic infection rate; susceptibles; Analytical models; Computational modeling; Data models; Diseases; Mathematical model; Mouth; Numerical models; Hand Foot and Mouth Disease; Periodic infection rate; Sensitivity analysis; The basic reproduction number;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Control and Decision Conference (CCDC), 2015 27th Chinese

Conference_Location

Qingdao

Print_ISBN

978-1-4799-7016-2

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/CCDC.2015.7162036

Filename

7162036