Intent inference using a potential field model of environmental influences

Intent inferencing is the ability to predict an opposing force´s (OPFOR) high level goals. This is accomplished by the interpretation of the OPFOR´s disposition, movements, and actions within the context of known OPFOR doctrine and knowledge of the environment. For example, given likely OPFOR force size, composition, disposition, observations of recent activity, obstacles in the terrain, cultural features such as bridges, roads, and key terrain, intent inferencing will be able to predict the opposing force´s high level goal and likely behavior for achieving it. This paper describes an algorithm for intent inferencing on an enemy force with track data, recent movements by OPFOR forces across terrain, terrain from a GIS database, and OPFOR doctrine as input. This algorithm uses artificial potential fields to discover field parameters of paths that best relate sensed track data from the movements of individual enemy aggregates to hypothesized goals. Hypothesized goals for individual aggregates are then combined with enemy doctrine to discover the intent of several aggregates acting in concert.