Application of load regularity evaluation in short-term load forecasting

Obtaining high accuracy of the load forecasting result is an uphill task to those who pursue studies on load forecasting, but there is no way to avoid prediction error. Too many insights have been concentrated on the construction of forecasting models to have noticed the regularity of the load itself. A method of evaluating load regularity is introduced to evaluate the regularity of various loads before forecasting. What can be reached is the upper limit of the prediction accuracy by thoroughly analyzing the minimum modeling error of specific load. By using the load regularity evaluation method, what will be shown is that how many regular components of the load can be mirrored, furthest, by the forecasting methods and how to directly improve forecasting methods to get better prediction results. Examples in experience show its effectiveness.