Probabilistic resource adequacy assessment of large interconnected systems

This paper presents the results of probabilistic resource adequacy assessment of a large North American interconnected planning reserve sharing group-the Mid-Continent Area Power Pool (MAPP) for the 10-year planning horizon from 2009 - 2018. The objective of this study is to assess the collective resources of the MAPP participants to determine the minimum level of reserve requirements based upon reliability principles and standards set forth by applicable regional reliability entities of the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). The study was conducted by the MAPP Composite System Reliability Working Group (CSRWG) using the Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program developed by the General Electric International Inc. The program is based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique. The study results support the current levels of Reserve Capacity Obligation (RCO) of 15% for predominantly thermal systems and 10% for predominately hydro systems within MAPP region.