Credibility theory applied for estimating operating reserve considering wind power uncertainty

The estimation of operating reserve to guarantee the system security and economic operation is an important task in power system operation. With the rapid increase of wind power installation and its large scale integration into power systems, the uncertainty of wind power should be considered in operating reserve estimation. This paper discusses the risk from wind power forecast error and introduces the idea of wind power at risk. The total risk due to wind power forecast error is studied from two different aspects, and two sets of indices are proposed. Credibility theory is applied to get the comprehensive index which is used to estimate operating reserve. Numerical tests are done to compare the proposed approach with others. The results show that the proposed approach can give more economic operating reserve estimation without loss of system security, which may be a reference for the power systems with large scale intermittent generation to estimate operating reserve.