E-Sales Diffusion in Europe: Quantitative Analysis and Modelling of First Adoption and Assimilation Processes

This paper is dedicated to the quantitative analysis and description of the adoption and assimilation phases of e-sales. The focus is placed on quantitative models of e-sales adoption relying upon Diffusion Of Innovation (DOI) mathematical models. Various models have been compared in order to determine that better describing e-sales adoption evolution, in terms of the number of adopting companies, for various industrial sectors in Europe. The Bass model, resulting to be the most suitable one for modelling first adoption, is then applied to estimate the parameters describing the e-sales evolution for the various industrial sectors. Then, moving to e-sales assimilation, the impact of e-sales adoption experience on e-sales adoption intensity is explored. This allows to investigate the evolution after the first adoption and if a link can be established between the maturity of the e-sales solution and its overall economic impact, reached after assimilation.