Pandemic Influenza simulation based on Genetic Algorithm and Agent Based Modeling

This research is to define and develop the Pandemic Influenza simulation program. There are 3 parameters to determine whether a virus is potentially dangerous or not: (1) infectivity (2) virulence and (3) contagiousness. Avian Influenza has characteristics as follows: relatively high infectivity, high virulence and low contagiousness. On the other hand, Swine Influenza has characteristics as follows: relatively high infectivity, low virulence and high contagiousness. Pandemic Influenza happens because of these 3 parameters changes: increment of infectivity; virulence and contagiousness. These changes can trigger the Pandemic Influenza to become more infectious, spread faster within wider location. This research´s hypothesis is based from the Pandemic Influenza phenomena as follows: To produce a comprehensive Pandemic Influenza modelling and simulation, there are two aspects: (1) The viruses´ abilities increment model, with two sub-aspects: (1.1) Internal aspect and (1.2) External aspect. One of challenge of this research is to determine the portion of the internal and external aspect influences toward the overall Pandemic Influenza phenomena. This model is based on Genetic Algorithm to produce new chromosome solution from existing chromosomes obtained from virus database. The new viruses, produced from existing viruses undergone 3 parameters increment, are potential to cause the Pandemic Influenza; (2) The virus and host interaction model based on Agent based modelling to obtain the epidemiological model. The result is simulation program based on MATLAB© with Genetic-Algorithm-Toolbox© combined with Agent based-modelling principle. The simulation results are new viruses undergone 3 parameters increment and their integration, and interaction between virus-host as epidemiological model. The integration of the new viruses are compared with the standard optimal value, to determine the potential of such new viruses causing the Pandemic-Influenza spread.- - This research could also be developed for other diseases: Tuberculosis, Dengue hemorrhagic-fever and other zoonotic-diseases.