Identification of areas prone to shallow landslide in Parque Nacional da Serra dos Órgãos (Brazil) considering seasonal rainfall

Mathematical modeling is being increasingly used to predict events occurring in nature. Within the diverse existing models, one which stands out is the SHALSTAB. This model of prediction of shallow landslide occurrence was applied in Parque Nacional da Serra dos Órgãos (PARNASO) by using data for average monthly pluviosity, aiming to identify, within the landscape, the spatial variability at places prone to shallow landslide throughout the year. The methodology is sectioned into the following stages: (a) elaboration of the digital elevation model (DEM) and its derived maps, such as slope and contribution area, (b) application of the SHALSTAB model, considering the various events of rainfall throughout the year, and (c) quantification of areas prone to landslide for each rainfall event occurred. The model results indicate the dynamics of the locations which present instability due to the seasonality of rainfall intensity.