Predicting the impact of cyber-attacks on BMC3 enterprises

Measures to safeguard or respond to a cyber attack against a BMC³ enterprise will invariably disrupt the missions supported by that system. We would like to predict the impacts of those disruptions beforehand and select information assurance measures that minimize the disruptions, especially to key BMC³ functions. In this paper we present an analysis method based on perturbation analysis. We develop a workflow model for the BMC³ functions that an enterprise conducts. We record representative processing histories for those functions under nominal conditions. We evaluate off-nominal conditions using an improved form of Cassandras´ (1993) path reconstruction analysis. Initial computational results are encouraging, and indicate that this method predicts off-nominal performance with a high degree of fidelity, and is substantially faster than discrete-event simulation.