Modeling of user´s route choice behavior in adverse weather

This paper is based on prospect theory to study the user´s travel choice behavior in adverse weather conditions. It takes into account of both the past travel experience (a priori information) and the current available information (the meteorological information which can be updated by Bayesian theory.) To tackle the increasing uncertainties in adverse weather, the concept of reserved time is proposed to measure the accuracy and reliability of the information that the users acquired; two functions and one reference point are constructed; finally, a theoretical model of path selection is designed under the framework of prospect theory.