Evaluation of probability distributions of reliability indices in a multi bilateral contracts market

Author

Goel, L. ; Viswanath, A. ; Wang, P.

Author_Institution

Sch. of Electr. & Electron. Eng., Nanyang Technol. Univ., Singapore

Volume

1

fYear

2004

fDate

21-24 Nov. 2004

Firstpage

96

Abstract

In a bilateral contracts market while selecting contracts to meet their reliability requirements, probability distributions of load point reliability indices considering multi-bilateral contracts with Gencos can provide useful information for the customers. This paper utilizes the modeling of each bilateral contract as an ETMG (equivalent time varying multi-state generation) to evaluate the load point reliability. The priority order in which the generating companies serve various contracts in case of generator outages is considered in modeling the ETMG. A procedure to determine the probability distributions of reliability indices based on the ETMG at various customer load points is proposed. A test system has been analyzed to illustrate the procedure and also the factors that affect the load point reliability.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; contracts; electricity supply industry; power generation reliability; power markets; probability; Gencos; Monte Carlo simulation; electric power industry; equivalent time varying multistate generation; load point reliability indices; multibilateral contracts market; probability distributions; Contracts; Convergence; Costs; History; Power markets; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Probability distribution; Risk management; System testing;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power System Technology, 2004. PowerCon 2004. 2004 International Conference on

Print_ISBN

0-7803-8610-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICPST.2004.1459973

Filename

1459973