Research on Dynamic Evolvement Analysis and Modeling of Risk in Development of Navy Vessel

All facets of risk in development of navy vessel and the relationship among the facets are discussed. It is pointed that, during the development of navy vessel, not only total risk degree is reduced, but also the present of each risk facet is changed at the same time. On the basis, the expected risk and the risk outputs are defined. The dynamic evolvement modes and the functions are presented. By an example, the diagram of risk facets evolvement and changing tendency are given. The analysis and the modeling can be used to advance the risk management in development of navy vessel.