Seeing the next iphone coming your way: How to anticipate converging industries

The blurring of boundaries between hitherto distinct scientific disciplines, technologies or markets is a common and powerful phenomenon. Traditionally, it has been discussed in respect to telecommunications, information technologies and electronics. Subjects of this convergence often change what and where customers buy, with Apple´s renowned iPhone being one current example for customers´ tendency towards products with multiple benefits. More recently also the chemical and its related industries find themselves affected by a larger convergence process. Concentrating on developments at the outposts of the chemical industry, we discuss indications of convergence with an example from the area of nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals. Furthermore, we present and discuss a multiple indicator concept for monitoring convergence in an R&D-intensive field on the basis of publicly available data. We analyze 7,455 scientific and patent references on phytosterols with the aid of SciFinder Scholar and 3,836 documents employing STN AnaVist. Our results show clear indications for convergence and a proof of principle for our monitoring concept. A closer look at convergence and effective tools for spotting weak signals appears to be necessary. Particularly for practitioners, the opportunity to get a head start on their current and future competitors is of high strategic importance.