Cointegration Methodology and Error Correction Model used to Forecast The Electricity Demand of The Venezuelan Electric System - Period 2004-2024

Author

Franco, M. ; Blanco, D. ; Blequett, W. ; Guglia, M. ; Alvarado, E.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Generation Planning, C.V.G Electrificacion del Caroni C.A, Caracas

fYear

2006

fDate

15-18 Aug. 2006

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

8

Abstract

This paper illustrates the methodology used to forecast electric demand of the Venezuelan electric system over a long term based on new methods in the econometric field. This document was divided in three parts; the first describes the theoretical framework and econometric methodology used in the residential, commercial, industrial and official construction models. The second part shows the evolution of the explanatory variables. The third part presents the results of the Venezuelan electric system demand and conclusions. Its main contribution is to provide a unique methodology to forecast the electric demand for the consuming sectors

Keywords

load forecasting; power system economics; Venezuelan electric system; cointegration methodology; commercial construction models; consuming sectors; econometric field; electricity demand forecast; error correction model; explanatory variables; industrial construction models; official construction models; residential construction models; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Error analysis; Error correction; Forward error correction; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Statistical analysis; Stochastic processes; Testing; Cointegration; Dickey Fuller Test; Electric Demand; Error Correction Model; Stationarity;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Transmission & Distribution Conference and Exposition: Latin America, 2006. TDC '06. IEEE/PES

Conference_Location

Caracas

Print_ISBN

1-4244-0287-5

Electronic_ISBN

1-4244-0288-3

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/TDCLA.2006.311608

Filename

4104539