Modeling of Serious Global Trends for Use with Combat Simulations

This paper presents and discusses an approach to modeling global conflict conditions as a function of climate change, water, food, and energy resources, societal response options, and social stress. The model is not intended to be used as a predictive tool; rather it is being developed and evaluated for use in generating scenarios as inputs to combat simulations. In this capacity, the model is intended to support simulation used to evaluate military space systems alternatives. The model uses deterministic and probabilistic relationships to describe conditions and societal responses based on the listed assumptions. Discussion includes the identified modeling factors, the modeled relationships between factors, the inherent limitations, use of the outputs, and additional work needed to improve the utility of such models.