Empirical study of ???double threshold??? modified model on new product diffusion

The innovations actually diffuse among social network nowadays. Individual heterogeneity, interactions between individuals and network topology influence a lot. We established a “double threshold” modified model and took the number of neighbors, neighbors´ adoption and the cost-benefit parameters as crucial influencing factors. The diffusion of DaLingTong (CDMA450) products in MeiShan city of SiChuan province during 2004 to 2007 has been used to verity the model on Matlab. The validation results fit the actual diffusion pattern of DaLingTong (CDMA450) products very well. The results indicate that there exists a “tipping point (threshold)” in the process of innovation diffusion. If the initial adoption quantity is larger than the tipping point, then the product will spread to a large portion of people, otherwise is will collapse to zero. The model can effectively predict the diffusion of new products, and can influence the diffusion process by changing the value of the parameters.