Hierarchical modelling of industrial system reliability with probabilistic logic

The use of Bayesian methods in dynamic assessment of system reliability is inevitably limited by computational difficulties arising from non-conjugate prior distributions. This contribution proposes an alternative framework, based on the combination of Bayesian methods and the subjective logic. The advantage of the former - consistent and exhaustive representation of available statistical knowledge, is extended by the latter, allowing computationally feasible combination of this knowledge at any level of the observed system using logic operations. The resulting methodology is currently under development in order to enlarge the capability of an intended novel industrial hierarchical condition monitoring system.