Determining optimal seasonal integration times of NDVI series for index-based livestock insurance in East Africa

Coarse-resolution NDVI time series, aggregated in space and time, are used as a seasonal forage scarcity index for an existing livestock insurance scheme in East Africa. Payouts are made to pastoral households if the index drops below a specific threshold, corresponding to drought conditions. This paper´s aim is to improve the seasonal definitions used in the scheme and to evaluate options for further anticipating the payout in time. To achieve this, we first performed a phenological analysis of SPOT-VGT FAPAR series resulting in location-specific season start- and end-dates. The resulting seasonal definitions were then used for calculating a forage scarcity index from eMODIS NDVI. Subsequently we evaluated if high end-of-season index predictability was maintained when bringing end-dates of the temporal integration further forward in time. Cross-validated statistics showed that the payout time after drought can be advanced by 2-3 months, allowing pastoralists to take protective measures to safe their livestock.