A granular Monte Carlo based methodology to estimate PV generation impacts on the utility long-term energy planning

With the publication of resolution #482/2012 by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL), the penetration of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) generators has started to increase rapidly in Brazil. This trend will reduce the total energy consumed by customers from the utility. Therefore, traditional techniques used by distribution utilities for long-term energy planning (1 to 5-year horizon) must be updated to include PV generation impact. In response, this paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for the long-term energy planning of distribution utilities, taking into account the probabilistic aspects of PV penetration growth. However, if simulations are conducted with high resolutions (e.g. 1-minute resolution) the time required to run all simulations may be excessive. To overcome this issue, an analysis of the data granularity impact on results precision is presented. It is observed that 1 “average day”, described using 1-hour data resolution, is sufficient to provide a good and quick estimate of the PV generation impact on long-term energy planning.