Prediction of rice brown planthoppers based on system dynamics

Rice brown planthoppers are the main pest of Chinese rice production, and belong to the long distance migratory pest. The descriptive model of a rice brown planthopper has complex features, which are dynamic, continuous, nonlinear, multi-variable, multi-feedback, and so on. By using the system dynamics method, we analyze the causal relationships between the various factors that influence the emergence and development of rice brown planthoppers from the whole-local perspective. Both the causal relationship diagram of the factors and the flowchart on the emergence and development of rice brown planthoppers are drawn. Combining with the discrete multivariate analysis method, we establish and implement a system dynamics simulation model on the emergence and development of rice brown planthoppers in Anhui. The experimental results show that the model has high accuracy.