Prediction of Power System Security Levels

In the paper, Markov chains in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation are used to predict the power system security level. The new approach uses a Markov chain for each identified security range to track the development of security level through time. Based on the forecasted and recorded data, the proposed procedure offers a useful tool to the system operator to predict a future power system security level. The method has been tested on the Bosnian power system using the recorded data on security levels during a one-year period. The forecasted results show a striking coincidence with the real security levels. By means of a simple and computationally fast method, the system operator can estimate the probability of a power system blackout. The presented method could be incorporated in the wide-area monitoring system in control centers.