Risk evaluation of electricity price and its sensitivity analysis after deregulation

Author

Bai, Lichao ; Kang, Chongqing ; Xia, Qing

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Tsinghua Univ., Beijing, China

Volume

3

fYear

2002

fDate

2002

Firstpage

1377

Abstract

In the electricity market, due to the uncertainty of the system load and all the units´ bids, market-clearing price (MCP) of the future becomes a random variable with some distributions. The uncertainty of MCP exposed every participant to some extent of price risk. It is necessary to analyze the market risk and then take measures to manage the risk. A simple model to analyze the price risk of the market is presented in this paper. The distribution function of MCP can be calculated. A numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis shows the changes of price risk when market status is changing. As a result, these analyses give some instructions to the participants in the power market so that they can make wiser decisions to avoid and manage the risks in the competition.

Keywords

costing; power markets; power system economics; risk management; sensitivity analysis; deregulation; electricity price; market risk; market-clearing price; price risk; random variable; risk evaluation; risk management; sensitivity analysis; Distribution functions; Electricity supply industry; Electricity supply industry deregulation; Energy management; Power markets; Random variables; Risk analysis; Risk management; Sensitivity analysis; Supply and demand;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power System Technology, 2002. Proceedings. PowerCon 2002. International Conference on

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7459-2

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICPST.2002.1067755

Filename

1067755