Understanding Patterns of Technology Evolution: An Ecosystem Perspective

Understanding the dynamics of technology evolution — whether for the purposes of forecasting new product or technology infrastructure developments, or identifying the basis for future digital convergence in the global market— is a key challenge for innovators, senior managers, and policymakers. This research provides an overview of a new ecosystem model of technology evolution, the purpose of which is to structure these kinds of assessments and suggest reusable analysis structures to ensure that total environment of technological innovation is considered. We use examples from the end-user computing context and the electronics industry to identify five patterns of technology evolution that commonly occur. We also develop a state diagram-based approach to demonstrate the cyclical nature of technology evolution. Finally, we illustrate our findings using a case study on digital music technologies.