Residential load forecast in China

With the economic development and the improvement of people´s living conditions, the proportion of the residential power consumption in China are keeping on increasing year by year. To meet the demand of power system planning and marketing, it is necessary to forecast the residential power consumption correctly. Based on the analysis of the development of residential power consumption of a typical area in China, its increase tendency was found to be similar with logistic curve. So a logistic load forecast model for residential power consumption is given, and through a case study, got the conclusions that this method is feasible, more scientific and objective, and can forecast more accurately than the growth rate method and the regression analysis method.