Analysis of Cultivated Land Changes´ Driving Forces over the Past 50 Years in Shucheng County of Anhui Province

In the paper, based on the statistical data, an empirical study was carried out, the farmland changespsila driving forces over the past 50 years in Shucheng County of Anhui Province are analyzed and two conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the statistical data of Shucheng County show that there are two phases of farmland change. The farmland area had been increasing from 1949 to 1957 and decreasing from 1958 to 2000. Secondly, by the method of Factor Analysis, it is found out that, the natural factors are not the driving forces of the land sue change during nearly past half century and there are four main human factors including agricultural condition & yield, the cultivating structure of foodstuff crop, the cultivating structure of industrial crop and national policy. The linear regression result show total labor, peasant labor, pig raising quantity, the ratio of rice cultivating area to foodstuff cultivating area, total cultivating area, and multi-cropping index are key driving factors of land use change over the past fifty years.