Evaluation of worst served customers on real size distribution networks using sequential Monte Carlo simulation techniques

Quality of supply (QoS) is one of the key priorities in electricity distribution regulation. In the UK, the electricity regulator, OFGEM, financially rewards and penalises Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) with respect to the average QoS performance system indices CI (SAIFI) and CML (SAIDI). However, focusing on system performance does not necessarily improve the QoS of individual customers. Therefore, DNOs are subjected to Guaranteed Standards of performance, which set supply levels that must be met in each individual case. This paper introduces a framework based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) techniques, which quantify the likelihood of two Guaranteed Standards of performance exceeding their specified thresholds. This has been evaluated on a very large real distribution network.