Runway landing safety analysis: a case study of Atlanta Hartsfield airport

According to historical data, aircraft are subject to a higher accident risk during the landing phase than during other flight phases. With the growth in air traffic volume evaluating safety during the landing phase is an important problem. This article presents an analysis and estimate of two safety metrics at ATL airport: probability of a simultaneous runway occupancy by two landing aircraft and probability of a collision on the runway. We begin with the first order analysis to estimate the simultaneous runway occupancy probability, based on field observations. To obtain a more accurate estimate and to evaluate the runway collision risk, we construct a stochastic model of the aircraft approaching and landing process. The result of Monte Carlo simulation gives an improved estimate for the simultaneous occupancy probability. We then numerically evaluate the runway collision risk using a generalization of the Reich collision model. Finally, we carry out sensitivity analysis to examine the impact on safety and capacity when the separation variance changes.