Research on Population Size Forecasting Method for Emergency Evacuation at School

Emergency evacuation is an important means to reduce casualties in coping with emergencies. Before issuing evacuation orders, forecasting the population size is the basis of all the evacuation plans. In previous studies, researchers usually use resident population or a fixed value instead of the population size of evacuation, without considering the diversity of the number of evacuees at different times. Based on a statistical analysis of the number of people going in and out at school accommodation area, according to the changing rule of the number of evacuees at different times, this paper presents a method using conversion factors to calculate the number of evacuees in a specific area, and verifies differences in gender and education also can cause the fluctuations of the number, which provides methodological guidance for forecasting the population size in emergency evacuation.