L-band SAR data and spatially explicit model to analyse forest loss between 2007 and 2030 in central Sumatra

This research aims to analyze tropical forest loss between 2007-2030 using L-band SAR data and a spatial explicit model with multiple what-if scenarios. Annual time series PALSAR data from 2007 to 2010 were analyzed for forest mapping and detecting land cover changes in Riau Province of Central Sumatra, Indonesia. A spatial model was calibrated and validated using the Markov Chain, Bayesian, and fuzzy approaches. This model allocates deforestation on the basis of empirical relationship to local biophysical, socioeconomic, and scenario binding parameters. The model generated landscape spatial patterns mirrored the potential locations and extent of deforested areas by 2030 and provided time-series crucial information on forest landscape under various scenarios for future landscape management projects. The results suggested that the current deforestation process is in a critical stage where some local areas may face unprecedented stress on primary forest costing rivers and forest ecosystems even by the end of 2020.