Accuracy Considerations of a Simple Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Model for Idle Thrust Descents

For idle thrust descent prediction at the selected look-ahead projections • Energy prediction for the constant energy angle and airspeed assumptions is only warranted for short prediction horizons, before bias errors become significant in relation to the underlying uncertainty. • Time prediction under the same assumptions proved to be highly inaccurate, requiring the use of higher fidelity models. • Acceleration dynamics are required for the selected (short) look-ahead projections, as the bias errors are highly significant. • Projection of energy uncertainty due to input parameter spread using simple kinematic models resulted in highly accurate predictions, capable of capturing the energy spread without resorting to repeated random sampling techniques.