Analyzing project tardiness risk based on value at risk

A project consists of many subprojects with precedence. Subprojects´ completion times are often uncertain due to many factors from inside and outside environment, which makes the project´s completion time uncertain. In such case, the project cannot be delivered on time leading to tardiness risk. To address this uncertainty, we provide a risk measure-value at risk (VaR). A model with the objective to minimizing VaR is built to describe and quantify the tardiness risk. The proposed model is compared to Monte Carlo simulation. Comparison results show that this proposed method can replace Monte Carlo simulation in measuring tardiness risk.