Temperature-based instanton analysis: Identifying vulnerability in transmission networks

A time-coupled instanton method for characterizing transmission network vulnerability to wind generation fluctuation is presented. To extend prior instanton work to multiple-time-step analysis, line constraints are specified in terms of temperature rather than current. An optimization formulation is developed to express the minimum wind forecast deviation such that at least one line is driven to its thermal limit. Results are shown for an IEEE RTS-96 system with several wind-farms.