Expected Cost Penalty due to Deviation from Economic Dispatch for interconnected power systems

This paper introduces and evaluates a new index called “Expected Cost Penalty due to Deviation from the Economic Dispatch” (EPDED) for interconnected power systems. This index represents the cost penalties associated with uncertainties such as random failure of generating units, load growth, and fuel costs in interconnected power systems. The significance of this index is that it represents common events such as operating problems that can be observed over short periods (e.g., one or two years) rather than the rare events such as load curtailment which is currently used for reliability evaluation of power systems. This paper presents two techniques to evaluate this index. Monte-Carlo simulation and a tree structured state enumeration. System studies are performed to determine the variation of expected cost penalty with respect to changes in load values and probability of failure of generating units