Space-based tactical ballistic missile launch parameter estimation

The author explores the influence of a priori uncertainties in launch time and trajectory fly-out profiles, along with sensor angle measurement errors, on the estimation of missile launch location and heading angle. An error model is developed to compute the statistics of the estimation errors using a single pair of angle measurements, one from each of two satellites, or both from the same satellite platform. The measurements and estimation methods are described, followed by a derivation of the estimation errors for the hypothetical case of perfect knowledge of trajectory and launch time. Using the ideal case as a framework, the errors are generalized to include trajectory and launch time uncertainties. The results are discussed with the aid of graphics which were run parametrically to highlight important dependencies and sensitivities